What is happening in Bitcoin, and why it matters
News, analysis, and essays. Reported clearly and framed honestly. Educational only, never financial advice.
Borrowing Against Bitcoin Is a Custody Decision Before It Is a Credit Decision
Circle is the latest firm to lend against bitcoin without a sale. The models differ less in price than in who can move the collateral, and the 2025 to 2026 drawdown showed what each answer costs.
The CLARITY Act Failed Over Ethics and Deposits. Neither Fight Was About Bitcoin.
Forty-six senators voted no over ethics rules. Three more voted no over community bank deposits, and they said so on the record. The market priced the outcome onto exchanges, not onto Bitcoin.
The Quantum Threat to Bitcoin Is Being Measured With the Wrong Instrument
Everyone watches qubit counts. The number that has actually moved is the estimate of what an attack costs, and it has fallen by a factor of roughly 1,400 in nine years. That changes what the timeline question even means.
Bitcoin's Network Effect Is Measurable. The Number Everyone Quotes Is Not.
Fifty years of research say networks gain value faster than they gain members. Nobody agrees on how much faster. We ran the regression on sixteen years of Bitcoin data and got an exponent that moves between 1.69 and 3.23 depending on where you start counting.
The Bitcoin Power Law Went Peer-Reviewed. The Corridor Everyone Quotes Did Not
A physics-style model of Bitcoin's price passed peer review in June. Its famous growth corridor was drawn separately in 2019, and the same model priced in gold is off by a factor of four.
Wind-Powered Mining Pays Only When It Stops Being About Curtailment
The Irish study's headline is a 32 percent revenue lift. One layer down, the clean curtailment-only model is the one that does not pay, and the property that makes mining useful to the grid is the same property that empties its hardware. The resolution is not bigger rigs. It is cheaper ones.
Why AI Threatens Bitcoin's Software but Not Its Security Model
The Red Team's scan is not a Bitcoin crisis. It is a forced audit of the software layer people actually touch, and a test of whether defenders can match attackers' tools and tempo.
Bitcoin Changes Only by Consensus
A failed anti-spam fork and a coming quantum-resistant address format share no code, only the question of who gets to change Bitcoin. The answer is the same in both cases, and it is why neither Wall Street nor a nine-member consortium can steer the protocol. An argument, not a forecast.
The GENIUS Act Made the Dollar Programmable. That Is Why It Matters for Bitcoin
A new US law lets private companies issue dollar tokens backed by cash and Treasuries. It exports the dollar and deepens it into US debt. Bitcoin gains from the contrast, not from doing the same thing.
BIP-110 Explained: What a Contested Soft Fork Reveals About Bitcoin Consensus
BIP-110 wants to restrict data storage on Bitcoin through new consensus rules, with almost no miner support and a low activation threshold. A structural read of the split risk, the economics, and where this analysis would break. Not a forecast.
Inside the Coldcard Flaw: What Went Wrong, and Why a Weak Seed Cannot Be Patched
The Coldcard theft was not a break in Bitcoin's cryptography. It was a single build setting that quietly routed seed generation through a predictable software generator. This is how the bug reached the firmware, why it survived for years, and what it changes about the hardware wallet you trust.
Who Buys Bitcoin After Strategy
Strategy has been Bitcoin's dominant buyer for years. A memo, a sale, and a market that barely flinched suggest the next buyer looks nothing like it. A structural read, not a forecast.